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 Iowa and New Hampshire: What do they mean? (revised)
by erik lars myers
 I can't take it. There's been too much news, too much coverage, and not enough information. These caucuses, these primaries -- what do they mean? Do they really make a difference?
I've compiled a little data for you from the last 30 years.
Year: Iowa Caucus Winner, New Hampshire Primary Winner, Party Nominated
Democrats
1972: Edmund Muskie, Edmund Muskie, George McGovern
1976: Jimmy Carter, Jimmy Carter, Jimmy Carter
1980: Democratic incumbent
1984: Walter Mondale, Gary Hart, Walter Mondale
1988: Richard Gephardt, Michael Dukakis, Michael S. Dukakis
1992: Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas, Bill Clinton
2000: Al Gore, Al Gore, Al Gore
2004: John Kerry, John Kerry, ...
Republicans
1972: Republican incumbent
1976: Republican incumbent
1980: George Bush, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan
1984: Republican incumbent
1988: Bob Dole, George H. W. Bush, George H. W. Bush
1992: Republican incumbent
1996: Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan, Bob Dole
2000: George W. Bush, John McCain, George W. Bush
2004: Republican incumbent
So.. what can we conclude?
Since 1972 The Iowa Caucus has correctly predicted the next major party Presidential candidate only 5 times. That's 50%.
Since 1972 the New Hampshire primary has correctly predicted the next major party Presidential candidate only 5 times. That's 50%.
[footnote]
Since 1972, the number they've both gotten right at the same time? 2.
Twice. Jimmy Carter and Al Gore. And only Carter went on to become President.
You know what? New Hampshire used to have it. If you look back a the stats they were calling not-only the party candidates but the Presidents as well up until 1960 or so. I guess the hippies took it out of 'em in the 60's, beacuse since then? It's a big ol' frickin' crap shoot, and not a particularly good one, either. I've had more successful crap shoots in my bathroom.
More likely, forget these, or at least put them aside, and pay more attention to the Super Tuesday votes -- a bunch of states hold their primary on the same day: Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, New York, Ohio, California, and Washington -- and there may be more that I'm missing.
That's the one to watch. Iowa? New Hampshire? Yeah. They're interesting, but look at the numbers, they don't mean squat. A 50/50 chance? You might as well flip a coin.
Footnote: I'm not counting incumbent candidates in the Caucuses and Primaries since those numbers are entirely different. There have been 21 one-term Presidents. That means that 50% of incumbents have won. In addition, of those 21 incumbents 2 of them died, and 4 of them weren't actually elected to office.
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